While most attention has been on IBM and its pursuit of Sun Microsystems, what would HP gain by competing with IBM to acquire Sun? Let's explore the various what-if scenarios for HP and IBM:
IBM acquires Sun Microsystems
Benefits to HP
- No need to worry about Cisco acquiring Sun and attacking core HP server and storage businesses.
- No need to compete with Sun directly.
Downsides for HP
- IBM owning 65 percent of the $17 billion UNIX server market.
- IBM increasing its strength in server, storage and service businesses.
HP acquires Sun Microsystems
Benefits to HP
- No need to worry about Cisco acquiring Sun and attacking core HP server and storage businesses.
- Expanded software and developer tools portfolio that could help HP compete more effectively with IBM.
- MySQL to help HP enter the database market and take on DB2, Oracle and SQL Server.
- Dominant position in the UNIX server market against IBM.
Downsides for HP
- Premium on acquiring Sun Microsystems, especially in light of competition from IBM.
- Consolidation with Sun server and storage businesses due to overlap.
Neither HP nor IBM acquires Sun Microsystems
This could be detrimental to both HP and IBM because Sun would most likely become an acquisition target for Cisco Systems. And if it falls into the hands of Cisco, then Cisco will be in a strong position to attack core server and storage businesses of both companies. IBM has the most to lose if Sun Microsystems falls into the hands of either Cisco or HP because in both cases, it would be facing a stronger competitor across its server, storage, software, database and other core businesses. Hence pursuit of Sun Microsystems is actually a defensive strategy for IBM in an attempt to protect and bolster its core businesses against both Cisco and HP.
If IBM efforts fail due to anti-trust issues, then this may be the catalyst for HP to bid on Sun Microsystems. Of course HP may go after Sun proactively but given its slightly more conservative $10.246 billion position in cash and cash equivalents compared to $12.906 billion for IBM, HP may sit this one out. Furthermore, HP may want to conserve its cash resources and go after Egenera after IBM spends its cash on Sun Microsystems.
Ultimately Cisco is in the best financial position to go after Sun Microsystems and block both HP and IBM. Cisco has $29.531 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2008 so as long as it is willing to bid north of $8 billion for Sun, it may put both HP and IBM out of contention.
Regardless of what happens, Lanamark software already supports data center analysis and design services with servers and storage from Dell, HP, IBM and Sun, and virtualization platforms from Citrix, Microsoft, Parallels, Virtual Iron and VMware. Support for Cisco UCS is coming in 2009Q2.